Notre Dame football gets underway in 2024 with a showdown in the opener at Texas A&M.
Should Notre Dame open the season with a big-time game or should they have a warmup or two?
That's a debate for another day but today we're asking if the first game of the year is a must-win for the Fighting Irish.
Win and things set up nicely for Notre Dame as it plays a very favorable schedule this fall.
Lose and it's an uphill battle the last 11 games.
What happens if Notre Dame wins?
If Notre Dame wins, arguably the toughest game on its schedule is a win with 11 games to play.
Dates with Northern Illinois, at a lowly Purdue, and against Miami (Ohio) come immediately following the Texas A&M clash. It's not guarantee Notre Dame wins (see 2022 vs. Marshall) but it's hard to envision Notre Dame struggling in those.
That likely means 4-0 with Louisville coming to town and a relatively easy three weeks before the game. Beat Louisville to get revenge for last year, move to 5-0 and go to the first bye week in really good shape.
Stanford, Georgia Tech, and Navy are hardly a scare after the bye.
Then another bye takes place before a strong Florida State team comes to South Bend in early-November. Virginia and Army don't bring much fear while the regular season closes at USC, which seems to always be a challenge even in dark years for the Trojans.
What happens if Notre Dame losses?
If Notre Dame falls in the season-opener, is every game the rest of the way a must-win for the Fighting Irish?
One look at Notre Dame's schedule, which we just went through above, shows a favorable 11 games.
It's a lot easier to have a little bit of wiggle room the rest of the year instead of every game being a must win.
The question that comes to mind for me is if a 10-win Notre Dame team gets in the College Football Playoff.
That's impossible to know without knowing how the regular season shakes out elsewhere.
It's safe to assume both the conference championship game participants from the Big Ten and SEC will be in. Two more spots go to the ACC and Big 12 champions while the top-ranked Group of Five team will also get in.
There are five spots remaining.
Notre Dame would be leaning heavy on Florida State being excellent and USC exceeding expectations if 11 wins is going to guarantee a playoff spot.
Biggest fear for Notre Dame against Texas A&M
The biggest fear I have about Notre Dame playing at Texas A&M has nothing to do with the weather.
Sure, it'll be hot, and south-Texas hot is different than most hots.
It's not the crowd that fears me either, although it won't help with what my main concern is.
The biggest fear I have for Notre Dame in the opening game is how the offensive line holds up against Texas A&M.
Aggies head coach Mike Elko knows how to bring pressure to start but he'll be at a decided advantage in this contest.
The defensive line is the clear strength of Texas A&M on paper and are led by former Purdue standout Nic Sourton, who led the Big Ten with 10 sacks a season ago.
Notre Dame trots out an offensive line that replaces both tackles from a year ago, a pair of guys who had their names called in the first two rounds of the NFL draft.
Texas A&M's biggest strength is my biggest concern going into the first game of the year which makes my stomach a little uneasy early.
So is Texas A&M a Must-Win for Notre Dame?
Nick's Quick Take: The answer to that question depends on what your realistic expectation for Notre Dame football is in 2024.
I don't think Notre Dame is on the same level as Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, or Texas entering the year. Anyone else, it certainly has a case to as good or better than.
To me it's not a must-win in terms of making the College Football Playoff. I think 10-2 will still be good enough to get in the College Football Playoff, but the path to do any damage once getting there takes a serious hit.
If your expectation for Notre Dame football is just get into the dance then no, the Texas A&M game isn't a must-win.
But if you expect Notre Dame to make some noise in the said playoff? Then it better beat Texas A&M and be in play for the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the College Football Playoff if it is going to accomplish that.
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